Renewable Energy Growth May Stall Post-2028 Amid Permit Hurdles
Trade group warns US renewable power additions could sharply decline after 2028.
Why it matters: Renewable energy projects face regulatory and permitting risks that legal teams must anticipate to navigate compliance and investment strategies effectively.
- Wind and solar account for nearly two-thirds of new power capacity planned for 2026.
- More than $121 billion in wind and solar investments risk delays due to stalled US permits.
- PJM Interconnection's reserve margin for 2028-2029 is projected at 14.4%, below the desired 20%.
- Senate negotiators are pursuing bipartisan reforms to streamline energy permitting and sustain growth.
The US renewable energy sector is booming, with wind and solar comprising nearly two-thirds of the new power capacity planned for 2026, according to the American Clean Power Association. Between July 2025 and June 2026, utility-scale capacity additions totaled 57.3 GW, with over 90% from renewables and storage, highlighting the sector's critical role in meeting future energy demand.
Despite this momentum, the trade group warns of a looming sharp decline in renewable power additions soon after 2028. This caution stems from increasing political opposition and barring of necessary permits. A recent report highlights that stalled US permits threaten over $121 billion in wind and solar investments, potentially choking new project pipelines and slowing capacity growth just as demand rises (Investing.com).
PJM Interconnection's recent capacity auction for the 2028-2029 delivery year reflects the looming risks. Prices hit a $325/MW-day cap, with the reserve margin at 14.4%, well below the targeted 20% buffer for grid reliability (Utility Dive). This shortfall signals potential strains on power supply as renewable additions slow.
In response, Senate negotiators are working on a bipartisan deal aimed at streamlining the permitting process. While details remain scarce, the goal is to sustain renewable energy development momentum by addressing regulatory barriers that impede project approvals (Axios).
For legal professionals advising corporations and developers in the energy sector, these dynamics underscore critical risks. Anticipating shifts in permitting policies and regulatory compliance could prove vital to managing project timelines and investment exposure amid a politically charged landscape.
By the numbers:
- 66% — share of new power capacity planned for 2026 from wind and solar
- 14.4% — PJM's reserve margin projected for 2028-2029, below the 20% target
- $121 billion — value of wind and solar investments at risk due to stalled permits
- 57.3 GW — utility-scale capacity added in the US from July 2025 to June 2026
Yes, but: While bipartisan efforts aim to ease permitting challenges, the scope and efficacy of reforms remain uncertain amid political opposition.
What's next: Senate negotiations on the bipartisan energy permitting bill will continue, with potential impacts on renewable project approvals expected in 2027 and beyond.